Tél Tamás (ELTE-TTK Elméleti Fizikai Tanszék):

On the theory of parallel climate realizations

Az előadás kivonata: Based on the theory of ``snapshot/pullback attractors'', we show that important features of the climate change we are observing can be understood by imagining many replicas of the Earth that are not interacting with each other. Their climate systems evolve in parallel, but not in the same way, although they all obey the same physical laws, in harmony with the chaotic-like nature of the climate dynamics. These parallel climate realizations evolving in time can be considered as elements of an ensemble. We argue that the contingency of our Earth's climate system is characterized by the multiplicity of parallel climate realizations rather than by the variability we experience in a time series of our observed past. The natural distribution on the snapshot attractor enables one to determine averages and other statistical quantifiers of the climate at any instant of time. In this talk, we review the basic idea for climate changes associated with monotonic trends, and illustrate the large number of possible applications.

Az előadóról:

• Intézeti adatlap.
• Személyes honlap.
• MTA-ELTE Elméleti Fizikai Kutatócsoport.